top of page

Equity Risks On The Rise

Scott Poore, AIF, AWMA, APMA



Markets pulled back last week as recession fears begin to mount, as well as thoughts that the Fed is behind the curve.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut or a 50 basis point rate cut has shifted since Friday's labor report. Just a week ago, there was only a 30% probability of a 50 basis point cut. Friday, that moved higher to a 37% probability, but as of this morning, it's back to only a 29% probability of a 50 bps cut. The reality is whether it's 25 or 50 bps, it probably won't move the needle on the housing market as more than 62% of current mortgages are at or below 4%, which means even 50 bps wouldn't get the 30-year mortgage below 5.5% to get homebuyers off the sideline.


We are entering a time of the calendar year when equities tend to be weak.

Most of the monthly returns for the S&P 500 in September, going back to 1950, have been negative. The Yield Curve finally closed uninverted last week as the 10-year Treasury Yield ended the week at 3.72%, while the 2-year Treasury Yield finished at 3.65. This is the first time the two yields have closed uninverted since July of 2022. Defensive sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Financials are positive more than 7% on average since the middle of July. Meanwhile, Semiconductors, Consumer Discretionary, Technology are down more than 8% over the same time period. There are still sectors to find value among equities.

 

Disclosures


The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The opinions expressed are those of the author, are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The decision to review or consider the purchase or sell of any security should not be undertaken without consideration of your personal financial information, investment objectives and risk tolerance with your financial professional.


Forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.


Any market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.


Past Performance does not guarantee future results.

Comments


EGBug.png

In Greek, Eudaimonia (U•da•mōn•ēya) means contented state of health, happiness and prosperity.

INDEPENDENCE FOR FINANCIAL ADVISERS

 

615.205.3510 | thrive@eudaimoniaRIA.com
 

818 18th Avenue South, Suite 950
Nashville, Tennessee 37203

1791 Bypass Road

Winchester, TN 37398


 

Investment advisory services offered through Eudaimonia Partners, LLC, Eudaimonia Advisors, LLC and Eudaimonia Asset Management, LLC, our federally registered investment advisors. Eudaimonia Partners, LLC, Eudaimonia Advisors, LLC and Eudaimonia Asset Management, LLC are affiliated registered investment advisors under common ownership and control of Eudaimonia Group. LLC.

KEAP_Hero.png
Subscribe to the EG Blog

Thanks for subscribing! You will be notified when a new blog post is made.

©️ 2016-2025 Eudaimonia Group LLC. All Rights Reserved. 

Website Disclosures and Terms of Use

Regulatory Disclosures

Newsweek_TopAdvisors.png
bottom of page